Weekly: weak June for BTC, Claude’s return and Trump’s crypto income

In June, Bitcoin posted its worst month of the year, Ethereum also ended both the month and the quarter in the red, and ETFs again became one of the main channels of pressure on the market. After falling to $58,000, BTC partially recovered and returned to the $62,000 area, but there is still no strong feeling of a rebound.

At the same time, the week brought several major stories beyond the charts: the US lifted restrictions on new Anthropic models, OpenAI reportedly offered the Trump administration a stake in the company, Trump himself declared more than $1.4 billion in income from crypto projects, and regulators in the US, EU, Taiwan and Azerbaijan continued building a new legal framework for the crypto market.

Bitcoin closed June in the red

June became the worst month of the year for Bitcoin. The asset closed it with a 20.48% decline, making it the seventh red June in BTC history. Among the main reasons for the pressure were geopolitical instability, constant capital outflows from ETFs and the first sale of Bitcoin by Strategy.

Over the month, spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $4.51 billion, setting a new negative record for the segment. For the market, this is especially painful because ETFs had recently worked as one of the main support points. Now they increasingly look like a channel through which large capital reduces risk.

During the week, BTC first traded sideways, then fell to $58,000, and after that partially recovered. By the end of the week, the asset returned to the $61,800–$62,600 area. This is better than a continued sharp collapse, but the market still looks cautious. Until BTC regains stronger levels and stable capital flows, any recovery looks more like an attempt to stabilize after a hit.

Analysts see signs of stabilization

Some analysts already see signs that Bitcoin is gradually moving into a calmer phase. CryptoQuant points to the Bitcoin UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio model: most participants are currently in a zone of unrealized losses, and such periods often appear closer to important market reversals.

Matt Hougan of Bitwise expressed a similar view. In his opinion, Strategy’s Bitcoin sale may not be a catastrophe, but a sign that the market is going through an important cleansing phase. Glassnode also records a return of long-term holders to accumulation, but adds an important clarification: the macroeconomic backdrop remains unfavorable.

Cantor Fitzgerald believes that the current BTC bear cycle could approach its end in autumn. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, on the other hand, takes a much broader view and allows for another parabolic growth cycle. But there is also a colder view: Citigroup lowered its 12-month forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum to $82,000 and $2,240 respectively, citing weaker investor interest, negative ETF flows and slow progress on US regulation.

Strategy is back at the center of pressure

Strategy presented a set of measures to cover obligations and replenish its reserve. Among other things, it allowed for the sale of Bitcoin to cover obligations on STRC shares worth up to $1.25 billion.

Grayscale believes the company should sell as much as $3 billion in BTC to create a reserve for covering obligations for several years and calm shareholders, while Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital directly linked the collapse of BTC and the broader market to the crisis of confidence around Strategy.

Previously, Strategy’s purchases often worked as a symbol of faith in Bitcoin. Now any discussion of a possible sale is already perceived as a factor of systemic pressure.

Ethereum closed the quarter in the red

Ethereum, like Bitcoin, closed June and the entire second quarter in the red. On the monthly timeframe, Solana and some smaller tokens looked better among altcoins, but the overall market picture remained weak.

Ethereum-based ETFs also recorded a net monthly capital outflow of $528.99 million. This is the third-worst result since these products began trading, but within the past week ETH looked slightly calmer than BTC: without sharp collapses on the chart, and by the end of the week the asset broke above $1,700 and traded near $1,760.

Still, this is not yet enough to talk about a strong return of interest. Wintermute believes that cryptocurrencies have already lost their status as the riskiest assets, but if the macro backdrop improves, liquidity will first go not into crypto, but into AI companies. According to their logic, for a full-fledged reversal, the AI boom needs to cool down at least partially.

DeFi is again attracting attention from major players

Against the backdrop of a weak market, DeFi still remains one of the sectors where analysts see a long-term perspective. Standard Chartered began coverage of Morpho and set a MORPHO target price of $60 by the end of 2030. The bank called the project a double bet on DeFi because it works with both lending and the potential development of on-chain finance.

Meanwhile, the Ethereum ecosystem launched Ethereum Institutional — an independent nonprofit organization that aims to accelerate institutional adoption of Ethereum, L2 networks, applications and related infrastructure.

NEAR also found itself at the center of discussion because of a fixed token supply plan. Illia Polosukhin responded to a proposal to update the tokenomics, where among the options under consideration are burning part of the NEAR Foundation’s tokens and modernizing the buyback program.

Regulation is again moving in several directions

In the US, skepticism around the CLARITY Act has increased. Galaxy Digital lowered the chances of the bill being passed in 2026 to 50% because of the Senate’s packed calendar and negotiations lagging behind expectations. JPMorgan, meanwhile, urged lawmakers not to rush, because the new framework must account for fundamental risks, rather than simply create the appearance of clarity.

In the EU, 244 MiCA licenses have already been issued to crypto service providers. Germany received the most approvals — 57, or almost a quarter of the total. The Netherlands and France have 26 licenses each. But some countries, including Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal and Romania, have not issued any yet. Against this backdrop, CZ said that Binance’s problems with registration in Greece are politically motivated, although he did not name who exactly opposed the license.

Taiwan adopted a crypto assets law that establishes a framework for service providers and stablecoin issuers. Companies must apply for a license within a year after the law comes into force, and operating without permission may lead not only to a fine, but also to a prison sentence of up to seven years. Azerbaijan also plans to adopt a crypto assets bill by the end of the year.

Sanctions, ETFs and industry oversight are tightening

OFAC added 134 crypto addresses linked to the Afghan branch of the Islamic State to its sanctions list. According to US authorities and TRM Labs, more than $2 million passed through these addresses. This is another example of how crypto infrastructure is increasingly becoming part of sanctions and counterterrorism policy.

Meanwhile, the SEC acknowledged mistakes in its approach to cryptocurrency ETFs and announced a more neutral stance toward new products. The regulator is now talking not only about Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs, but also about prediction markets, private assets and other complex instruments.

Separately, the US Supreme Court strengthened Trump’s position on the ability to dismiss employees of the SEC, CFTC and FTC, although the Fed remained an exception. This adds another political layer to the regulatory story. Rules for crypto are not being formed in a sterile legal room, but in a very active political environment.

The US lifted restrictions on Anthropic models

In the AI sector, the main news was the lifting of export restrictions on Anthropic’s newest models. Fable 5 became available to users again from July 1, and the company is working to allow foreign participants in the Glasswing project to test Mythos 5. These restrictions had been introduced shortly after the models were presented, and this is what made the story so loud.

Anthropic has long been seen as one of the key players in the race for powerful AI systems, while Mythos 5 had previously appeared in the context of risks to the financial system. So the lifting of restrictions is a signal that the US continues to balance security, technological control and competition with other jurisdictions.

At the same time, according to media reports, OpenAI offered the Trump administration a 5% stake in the company to remove possible political obstacles. The idea was to transfer part of the shares into a trust that would later distribute income. If such a model really moves forward and is adopted by other AI labs, it could become a very unusual mechanism of interaction between the state and the largest private technology companies.

Chinese startup Z.ai also added to the competition: according to experts, its GLM-5.2 model has almost matched the flagship solutions of OpenAI and Anthropic in programming quality and agentic capabilities, while being significantly cheaper. This is another signal that the AI market is moving not only through the strongest model, but also through accessibility, cost and practical usefulness for developers.

Trump declared more than $1.4 billion in income from crypto projects

One of the loudest political stories of the week was Donald Trump’s disclosure. According to the filed documents, the US president received more than $1.4 billion in income from crypto projects in 2025. Around $800 million came from World Liberty Financial, while the rest came mostly from memecoins.

Crypto is no longer just a topic of campaign slogans or political statements. It has become a direct source of major personal income for a person who simultaneously influences the regulatory course of the US.

Separately, it was reported that Eric Trump became a billionaire thanks to investments in the crypto industry, while Barron Trump had $150 million at the age of 19. This further strengthens the feeling that the Trump family’s crypto business has already become a separate factor in the market — not only financial, but also reputational.

Kursoff’s view

The main conclusion here is simple: the market can no longer be read only through the BTC price. Now it is important to look wider — at capital flows, regulation, AI, political interests and which players are actually retaining strength in a weak month. That is where it becomes clear where there is real infrastructure, and where only a loud narrative remains.