Weekly: Bitcoin Holds Support, Fed Brings No Surprises, and Miners Take a New Course

Bitcoin started above $66,000 on the back of statements about agreements between the U.S. and Iran, but after the FOMC meeting and the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged, the asset slipped below $64,000. 

At the same time, other risks have built up: miners have been working under production-cost pressure for several months, Binance may lose the right to operate in the EU due to problems with its MiCA license, and U.S. regulators are once again tightening rules for stablecoins. At the same time, there are also opposite signals inside the market: whales have returned to accumulating BTC, Ethereum has increased open interest in derivatives, DeFi is again getting attention from major analysts, and mining companies are increasingly looking toward AI infrastructure.

Bitcoin holds near a key zone

Bitcoin first received active support on the back of geopolitical optimism, but after the Fed’s decision it quickly returned below $64,000. Formally, the rate remained unchanged, meaning there was no major surprise for the market, but crypto is now reacting not only to the decision itself, but also to the general level of uncertainty: inflation, bond yields, risks around Iran, and weaker institutional appetite are still weighing on demand.

At the same time, the market sees important support in the $60,000–$61,500 zone. Long-term holders are transferring BTC to exchanges less often, while whales started accumulating the asset again after the drop to $61,400. This looks like an attempt by major players to keep the market from a deeper decline, but it is too early to call it a full return of strength. Until BTC shows a more confident move above key levels, the growth still looks more like stabilization after a drawdown.

Part of the market sees seller exhaustion and a gradual exit of weaker participants, but Wintermute considers the latest rise a technical rebound and allows the risk of a move toward $50,000. Bitwise, by contrast, talks about improving sentiment and BTC being undervalued compared with companies in the AI and semiconductor sectors. 

Major investors are still in the game

Over the long term, Bitcoin still receives support from public advocates. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes that BTC strengthens its status as digital gold, while Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego holds up to 80% of his liquid portfolio in Bitcoin.

Bhutan continues to reduce its BTC reserves, while Peter Schiff is again criticizing Michael Saylor and Strategy after the decline in STRC preferred shares. So the market is not moving in one direction: some use weakness to accumulate, some lock in positions or reduce exposure, and some simply wait to see where the price goes after another support test.

Regulation is putting pressure on crypto companies again

U.S. regulators have proposed new customer identification rules for stablecoin issuers as part of the implementation of the GENIUS Act. More control, more AML requirements, and less space for gray schemes through digital assets.

At the same time, lawmakers agreed on restrictions for the Fed regarding the launch of a CBDC until the end of 2030. For the crypto industry, this looks more positive because it opens up more space for private stablecoins, but the overall picture is still not about freedom, but about new rules of the game. States are not moving away from the topic of digital money; they are simply trying to better control who exactly will build this infrastructure.

Illinois added even more tension by introducing a 0.2% tax on digital asset transactions for companies involved in the exchange, transfer, or custody of cryptocurrencies. The industry is already criticizing this decision as discriminatory. Meanwhile, Binance risks not receiving a MiCA license in the EU, which could restrict the exchange’s operations in the European market as early as July. For the largest exchange, this is not just a technical delay, but a reputational and operational blow.

Geopolitics remains a separate risk factor

The U.S. and Iran remain important sources of uncertainty for the market. The first round of negotiations in Switzerland, scheduled for June 19, was postponed indefinitely due to logistical reasons. Washington still says that the agreements between the parties remain in force, but the market reacts not to formal statements, but to the risk of a new escalation.

In addition, the Western press is increasingly talking about strategic miscalculations by the Trump administration in its confrontation with Tehran. This refers to underestimating Iran’s political resilience, weaker coordination with allies, and the unclear end goal of the American campaign.

Miners under pressure

According to JPMorgan estimates, Bitcoin has been trading below the estimated cost of production for five months, while about 20% of miners are operating at a loss. Because of this, some companies are forced to reduce their BTC reserves, and the network recorded one of the largest drops in mining difficulty in history – more than 10%.

Some miners simply cannot withstand the current price pressure. On the other hand, the decline in difficulty temporarily eases conditions for those who remain in the game. For the market, this looks like a cleanup: weaker participants exit, stronger ones receive better conditions, but the entire industry must quickly look for new sources of revenue.

That is why the mining sector is increasingly looking toward AI and high-performance computing. Enegix Global is launching Oman’s national Bitcoin pool Omanhash.om with approximately 10 EH/s of hashrate in the first phase. And VanEck believes that the future of miners is increasingly tied to the role of data center operators for AI, but the sector may need about $50 billion in additional financing for such a transition. 

Ethereum is waiting for momentum

Ethereum held near $1,727 last week; at first glance, the move was not loud, but activity inside derivatives rose noticeably. Open interest in ETH futures on Binance reached an all-time high of 3.7 million ETH, while the exchange’s share of the derivatives market exceeded 44%. 

At the same time, Santiment recorded the lowest crypto asset trading volumes since mid-2024. Such calm sometimes precedes a relief rally, but by itself it does not guarantee a strong recovery.

Among internal risks, former Ethereum Foundation employee Trent Van Epps warned of a possible ecosystem funding crisis over the next 3–9 months. According to him, protocol development may face a shortage of stable support sources, meaning the network needs new mechanisms for governance and developer funding. At the same time, Ethereum supporters emphasize that this network remains the key infrastructure for stablecoins, asset tokenization, and DeFi. 

DeFi regains attention, while memecoins lose momentum

In the altcoin sector, the main contrast of the week is between DeFi and memecoins. Standard Chartered forecasts Uniswap’s token rising to $100 by the end of 2030, calling asset tokenization a key driver of DeFi development. Grayscale also views the sector’s prospects positively and highlights Aave, Uniswap, and Hyperliquid among strong projects.

ZEC jumped almost to $500 after a statement by project co-founder Zooko Wilcox about a successful security audit involving Claude Mythos from Anthropic. Against this background, the project’s capitalization exceeded $8 billion, while trading activity rose sharply.

Memecoins, by contrast, are losing pace: pump.fun’s daily revenue has fallen by more than 70% since the beginning of the year, while the number of users and token launches has declined noticeably. This also hit the Solana ecosystem, which received part of its revenue from the memecoin boom. Speculative capital is gradually getting tired of short meme cycles and is starting to look for something more fundamental – DeFi, RWA, tokenization, and real use cases.

SBF, FIFA, and post-quantum preparation

Sam Bankman-Fried, after filing a pardon request, faced resistance from U.S. lawmakers. Senators Cynthia Lummis and Ruben Gallego introduced a resolution calling not to soften the punishment for the former head of FTX, emphasizing the lack of signs of remorse. Meanwhile, SBF is already talking about plans after a possible release, including the launch of his own token.

FIFA, meanwhile, is expanding its use of blockchain: the organization integrated Avalanche into the ticket sales system for the 2026 World Cup. The model of digital rights for purchasing and receiving tickets is intended to reduce fraud, bot activity, and speculation on the secondary market. The volume of operations with such digital rights has already exceeded $25 million, and this is one of the most practical examples of blockchain outside the purely cryptocurrency market.

Algorand also gave a strong infrastructure signal. The blockchain presented a roadmap for transitioning to post-quantum cryptography and plans to complete the implementation of key protection mechanisms by the end of 2027. The project already uses separate elements of post-quantum protection and is preparing to launch native Falcon-1024 accounts.

AI agents move into finance, robotics, and Web3

Anthropic reported that Claude Opus 4.7 learned to work independently with a robot as part of Project Fetch and outperformed company employees in some tasks, but the system did not pass the final stage of testing, and this is an important detail: even strong models are already moving into the physical world, but their autonomy is still not unlimited.

Coinbase and AWS integrated the x402 protocol for accepting payments from agents, while Alchemy together with Visa presented a solution that gives AI a digital identity, a wallet, and the ability to make purchases on the internet independently. 

The U.S. restricted access to certain Anthropic models, which triggered a discussion among G7 countries about technological sovereignty and dependence on American developers. OpenAI also came under new regulatory pressure in the U.S.: the company must provide authorities with information about how ChatGPT works, model safety policies, and approaches to different categories of users.

Tether, meanwhile, updated QVAC, adding tools for local video generation, robotics, and brain-computer interfaces. And KPMG was forced to withdraw part of its research on agentic AI after fabricated cases were discovered, likely caused by model hallucinations. 

Crypto crime and old protocols reminded the market of risks again

Europol, together with intelligence services from the U.S. and other countries, shut down the crypto service AudiA6, which, according to investigators, was used to launder funds for ransomware operators. About $389 million passed through the platform, and two alleged organizers — citizens of Ukraine and russia — were detained in Georgia.

Crypto detective ZachXBT, meanwhile, reported exposing a possible network of scammers from India. The story began when the owner of frozen bitcoins himself filed a complaint, and as a result this helped establish a possible connection between the funds and a series of crypto thefts in the U.S.

On the Ethereum network, an attacker stole more than $2 million from Aztec Connect through a vulnerability in the proof verification mechanism. What is especially important is that the protocol was decommissioned several years ago, and its smart contracts are no longer controlled by the team. 

Kursoff’s view

The market no longer buys beautiful stories automatically. It looks at where there is real infrastructure, where there is money for development, where risks are controlled, and who can get through a weak phase without losing structure. This is what matters now more than any short-term rise on the chart.