Capitulation in Ether? A key indicator has entered a critical zone 📉

Ether has fallen by about 30% in two weeks. After moves like that, the market always asks the same question: is this the bottom, or is there another flush ahead?

Against the backdrop of this two-week correction, analysts pointed to an on-chain metric for Ether: the MVRV Z-Score. According to their data, the indicator dropped to -0.42 and entered the zone often referred to as capitulation.

The MVRV Z-Score is an indicator that compares the market value of an asset with its realized value, meaning a notional average price at which the coins last moved on the network. Put simply, it shows how far the price has diverged from the on-chain base. When the Z-Score goes negative, it usually means the market is oversold and many participants are already locking in losses.

That is what is called capitulation: the moment when sellers give up, panic dominates, and selling at a loss becomes widespread. But there is an important nuance: capitulation does not always mean a bottom. Sometimes it is the final flush before a recovery, and sometimes it is just one wave in a longer downtrend.

In this case, the debate continues because despite the critical signal, the MVRV Z-Score is still far from its worst historical readings. That is, the market действительно looks oversold, but the indicator is not screaming an extreme that previously совпадал with the deepest bottoms.

So there are two basic scenarios now. The first: capitulation has already happened, weak hands have been flushed out, and what follows is a period of stabilization and gradual recovery. The second: this is not the end yet, and if pressure persists, Ether may see another leg down or retest the lows.

The question remains open: do you think Ether has already touched bottom, or does the decline still have room to run?